Bayesian Updating for Transmissivity Estimation in a

The majority of this course has focused on large scale climate and human health applications. The paper presented here, however, is an example of a smaller scale application of statistics to a geo-environmental issue. Researchers intend to model groundwater in an approximately 200 kilometer (km) by 300 km area around the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. The study area is located on the eastern edge of a region containing the greatest number of saline lakes in the world, as well as significant salt concentrations in the ground water. Two aquifers, separated by an impermeable layer, are present, an upper fractured carbonate aquifer and an underlying sandstone aquifer.The concern is that certain patterns of future exploitation of ground water resources could result in the intrusion of saline water into the study area.